Prediction markets3 min read
Resolution is the hard part of a prediction market
Order books get the attention, but what decides whether a prediction market is trusted is the part that settles the outcome. How resolution really breaks.
On-chain markets · EVM and Solana
Prediction MarketDevelopment
Market engine, oracles and resolution, liquidity, and the settlement layer — the four parts that decide whether a prediction market gets used and trusted. Built on the studio’s web3 practice.
Market engine
The core: how markets are created, how orders match, how positions are tracked, and how a market closes. Order book or AMM, on-chain or hybrid — chosen against your latency and capital assumptions, not by fashion.
Get startedWhat’s included
- Order book or AMM market making
- Market creation and lifecycle rules
- Position and P&L accounting
- Settlement and payout flows
Oracles and resolution
The part that decides whether traders believe they will get paid. Named data sources, an explicit dispute path, bonds that scale with open interest, and a defined state for markets that cannot settle.
Get startedWhat’s included
- Resolution source design and wiring
- Dispute window and bonding logic
- Explicit unresolved / refund paths
- Full audit trail of every resolution
Liquidity and market making
A market nobody can trade is not a market. Bootstrapping mechanics, incentive design, and the tooling to run and monitor liquidity once real money is in the book.
Get startedWhat’s included
- Liquidity bootstrapping mechanics
- Incentive and fee design
- Market-maker integration
- Depth and spread monitoring
Wallets, settlement, and controls
Deposits, withdrawals, and payouts that hold up under load and scrutiny — plus the access controls, pause mechanisms, and reporting hooks you will need before real volume arrives.
Get startedWhat’s included
- Wallet connection and custody choices
- Deposit / withdrawal and payout flows
- Role-based controls and pause paths
- KYC / compliance integration points
Stack
What we reach for when building on-chain markets.
Solidity · EVM
Solana · Anchor
Oracles · resolution
Order book · AMM
WalletConnect · wallets
Audit-ready process
Common questions
The four that come up in almost every scoping call.
Order book or AMM?
It depends on how many markets you run and how thin they are. An order book gives better pricing where there is real two-sided flow; an AMM keeps thin, long-tail markets tradable at all. Many platforms end up running both, and that choice is worth making before the engine is written.
How do you handle resolution disputes?
With an explicit dispute window, a bond sized against open interest, and a defined path for markets that cannot settle — refund, extend, or escalate. The rules get written into the market at creation time, not decided during an incident.
What about regulation?
Prediction markets sit in different regulatory positions depending on jurisdiction and how the product is framed. We are engineers, not your counsel — we build the controls your legal position requires (KYC hooks, geo restrictions, role-based limits) and expect that position to come from a lawyer.
How long does it take?
A working prototype with real market mechanics comes far sooner than a launch-ready platform. Scope, resolution model, and whether you need an audit drive the difference. Tell us what you are building and we will come back with a scoped plan rather than a generic estimate.